Trading In Forex

The Aussie just broke all time highs and the bears have been cleared from the market. There are no bearish set ups and the daily long target has just been hit. The short term trend is continuing to push this market higher and until we see a breakdown on the 15 minute chart there is only one option to play. If price does breakdown at the short term level look for a pullback on the daily level to take this market higher.

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Australian Forex Broker Mt4

The South African rand was the world’s second best performing currency in 2009. The rand rallied 28% versus the US dollar. In addition, the South African rand paid out 7% in interest income. In a leveraged forex account, that’s 700% in leveraged interest income alone. Australian Forex Broker Mt4

King of Bling
South Africa is the King of Bling. It is among the world’s leading exporters of gold, diamonds, platinum, palladium, silver, ferrachrome, maganese, and gemstones.

As bling prices go up, so does the South African rand. As platinum and gold prices appreciated in 2009,the rand and the Australian dollar (AUD) soared along with them.

Like South Africa, Australia is a leading gold miner.

The outstanding performances by gold, the South African rand, and the Australian dollar were not a coincidence. South Africa holds the world’s largest gold reserves, estimated at 40% of the world’s total. Australia is currently the world’s leading exporter of gold. As a result, the rand’s and AUD price moves in tandem with gold prices. One study found the ten-year price correlation was in excess of 80%

Better than owning Gold
When bullish on gold, I prefer owning the South African rand and the Australian dollar versus owning gold for the following reasons:

Leveraged Interest Income: Leveraged interest income is a beautiful thing. You deposit ,000 with your forex broker. With that deposit you purchase a standard 0,000 South African rand currency position.

The South African rand pays 7% interest on the 0,000 currency position. If the rate remains unchanged for a full year, you can earn ,000 in interest income on your ,000 original investment. Australian Forex Broker Mt4

Leveraged Appreciation: This one can work for good or bad. In 2009, when the South African rand appreciated 28%, that was roughly a ,000 profit on your leveraged position. Add that to your ,000 in leveraged interest income, and you could have earned ,000 on a ,000 investment. Conversely, if gold prices and the South African rand would have fallen 28% in 2009, your leveraged position would have lost ,000 less your ,000 in interest income for a net loss of ,000. Since you had deposited only ,000 in your account, your account would have went into debit, except for your no-debit guarantee.

No-Debit Guarantee: Like leveraged interest income, the no debit guarantee is a beautiful thing. The no debit guarantee turns the two-edged sword of leverage into a superior speculative investment structure that resembles a limited-risk long call option position. You have unlimited upside from the rand’s leveraged appreciation and interest income. But your downside loss is limited to the amount of your deposit in your forex account.

Choice of Funding Currency: When you buy stocks, gold, or other assets you pay with USD. When you buy a currency, you pay for it with the currency of your choosing. To buy the rand (ZAR), you can sell USD/ZAR or you can sell EUR/ZAR, or JYP/ZAR. You can greatly enhance your return by choosing the weakest currency. In 2009, the USD was the biggest dog. So far in 2010, its the EUR-this pig has fallen almost 10% in the last month alone. So even if the rand does not have a good year, you can earn great returns by purchasing it with a weaker currency.

Although the South African Rand pays higher interest and continues to outperform the Australian Dollar, if you are betting on higher gold prices, you should own both currencies. The diversification reduces your exposure to country specific risk (earthquakes, national strikes, etc). Australian Forex Broker Mt4

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The Trader Guy looks at the oil markets and the Iranian drama. The Iranians were put in their place by both the Saudis and the US Navy’s 5th Fleet on Wednesday sending oil prices lower. With this being said – how do we make money in the FX markets due to this?

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The Australian dollar has little standing in its path other than a possible flat, to positive move in the USD on the back of a survey by Reuters stating 14/15 primary dealers think it likely the US Federal Reserve will announce Quantitative easing round 2 at their Nov 3 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The effect of QE2 is to bring real rates in the US towards -2% in an attempt to stimulate business lending, however as excess reserves show this money is not helping the man in his mechanic shop in Kansas and an increase in supply of US Dollars will ultimately lead to USD depreciation. With Australian domestic terms of trade only looking rosier and the possibility commodities skyrocket on the back of this USD depreciation we feel it unlikely unless the RBA intervenes that the AUD will not hit parity soon. Technically the 30 minute chart has found support at the 38.2% retracement for the move between 0.9541 and 0.9918, in the ultra-short term price has also found support at the 382 for the recent range between 0.9918 and 0.9710. This confluence combined with the higher low formed above resistance turned support at 0.9700 gives us confidence the move can be sustained on a break of 0.9920 where this level becomes support for a move to 0.9967 and onwards to the big parity figure and through to next resistance at 1.0046. Our emergency stop is placed below 0.9650 with our upside target now placed at 1.0046.

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